Is Romania prepared for joining the Euro?

Yes, because its economy is very synchronised with the other Eurozone economies.
5% (7 votes)
Yes, because it has a very flexible economy to respond to asymmetric shocks.
3% (4 votes)
No, because its economy is neither synchronised nor flexible enough to deal with asymmetric shocks.
93% (139 votes)
Total votes: 150

Comments

Romania has a duty to European Union since 2007.We agreed to change national currency with euro.But in my opinion,I think Romania is not prepared to do that,and I think at two reasons: unflexible economy and Romanians mentality.First of all,we have to resolve our economical problems and the we will be able to prepare the country for a new currency. Inflexibile economy, lack of production units , corrpution and other important political and social factors could lead to the idea that changing the currency would not be favourable for our country for the moment. Regarding Romanians mentality,I think we are still passing through a transition after communism and the adoption of euro will be difficult to accept. In conclusion,we will have to wait minimum 10 years from now,as Mugur Isarescu said to join euro zone.Eventually we will accomplish our duty,but this needs time and a lot of changes.
Total votes: 8
Peer vote

Considering that the most imperative lesson of the Greek Greek crisis is that long-term sustainability of the euro zone will depend not just on the appreciation of new financial guidelines or more grounded coordination of monetary strategies, additionally on EU's ability to lessen its inner monetary divergences, I believe that the 2019 target date for Romania is not being a moving one. The biggest eastern EU members, including Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, have surrendered euro-reception focuses as their economies reeled from the worldwide monetary emergency and trust in the coin was shaken. Romania is embarking to take after Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia into the coalition, while Lithuania is expecting to join one year from now. Greece's experience has uplifted worries in Romania about joining the eurozone rashly, yet it hasn't extinguished Romania's interest altogether. Romania does not have the contempt for Greece common in the Baltic states and Slovakia, and indeed shares a portion of the Greek public’s wariness of austerity policies. In any case, Romania's rising up out of socialism and fast move to free enterprise since the 1990s, and its later monetary relationship with German industry, have made eurozone enrollment an objective for the nation's political class. Romania is now meeting obligatory convergence markers, for example, debt to GDP proportion and long term interest rate. In any case, the GDP per capita stays underneath the EU normal, and I think that Romania could not endeavor to receive the euro after 2020, with the economy in a more grounded position. Romania may be close to eurozone eligibility on purely fiscal criteria, but its economy remains relatively small — about half the size of the current EU average. After Bulgaria, it is the second poorest country in the European Union.
Total votes: 7
Peer vote

The adoption of Euro in Romania is now a question of national priorities and commitments. What we know for sure is that Romania will be in the euro zone some day, as an obligation assumed through the EU Accession Treaty. What we don't know is when it could happen. First, it is about the criteria to be fulfilled. Second, about timing. Third, we must speak about a national project and commitments in this respect. 1) The criteria: Considering that the Maastricht criteria are fulfilled, so as the nominal convergence is fulfilled, the main issue remains for Romania the real convergence - as Mr Vasilescu explained also, the PIB/capita issue. The experience so far shows that, in order to benefit from the euro zone a country must be at leas 70-75% of the EU average PIB/capita. In order to get to this level, Romania must go through a series of reforms in order to ensure the economic stability on the medium and long term. The chief economist of the National Bank of Romania, Valentin Lazea, said in an interview last year that the reforms are necessary anyway for the real development of Romania so they must be continued even if it's not for the Euro adoption purpose. 2) Timing. Entering the euro zone in 2019 is obviously impossible in this moment because of the formal stages necessary in advance. All the Governments so far set targets and none of these were realistic. In a report published last year the think-tank Romanian Centre for European Policies proposed 2 other options to a fixed target: 1) to set a flexible target and to set a realistic action plan of measures first and 2) to adopt the wait and see strategy (on the model of othetr countries), without a target at all. Anyway, in the meantime, within the National Reform Plan recently adopted (in May 2016) the Government led by Dacian Ciolos did not mention any concrete date as a target, considering that certain targets must befollowd by certain measures on the long term. 3) The adoption of the euro could be the `next national project`, as the officials said in an extended conference last year. The problem is, in Mr Lazea's opinion, that neither the institutions, nor the private sector seems to be committed to support the necessary reforms. Also we should not forget the `5 Presidents Report' published last year: The European leaders showed clearly that the euro zone will be strengthened and could put on new rules for joining the club. Romania must assume to stick to the rules in an organized, assumed and committed way. Sources: http://www.euractiv.ro/economic/dezbatere-live-marti-13-00-valentin-lazea-si-ciprian-ciucu-dezbat-optiunile-aderarii-la-zona-euro-2129 http://www.crpe.ro/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Raport-Orizontul-EURO.pdf http://www.euractiv.ro/economic/mugur-isarescu-despre-%E2%80%9Eanticamera-zonei-euro-.-miza-asumarii-unei-tinte-457 https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/publications/five-presidents-report-completing-europes-economic-and-monetary-union_en
Total votes: 7
Peer vote

The video starts with a statement of Adrian Vasilescu, Strategic Consultant of the Romanian Bank, where he expresses his opinion concerning the situation that Greece was facing in 2011, when this country accumulated a debt of over 300 billion Euros. What has happened to the economy to cause such a catastrophic turnaround and what is the chance that Romania has until 2025 to surpass such issue, will be explained further by Mr. Vasilescu. The spreading of the Greek crisis to the other countries in the euro area was addressed by a tightening of the stability programs of countries with higher debt and deficits and with accumulated competitiveness losses. Additional measures have been taken in several countries, to ensure that the targets set were reached. Also Romania has been questioning wether the fusion of the Greek banks would have an impact on the country’s economy, and weather this will affect or delay its adherence to the euro zone. Taking this issue into account, Mr Vasilescu tries to explain why we should not hurry to adopt the euro currency as a national currency, as it seems that we still haven’t reach all the conditions necessary that are required by the European Union. Furthermore, even though our adherence to euro was estimated somewhere at the beginning of 2019, our Prime Minister Mugur Isarescu forecasted that Romania will adopt this currency starting with 2025, as the current economic situation is still not set up and an extended deadline will give the chance to Romania to become better in the two sectors that define a country as a candidate to the euro zone. The professor explains that there exists a so called anteroom that Romania needs to pass. After this step, the next one is the evaluation that will last also a little while, making 2019, a year that cannot be sustained as a valid one, at least mathematically speaking. The best solution would be to renounce at such predictions and to start to monitor better our economy’s development, as entering the euro area is an obligation and the countries that are an exception due to their referendum are quite few and as a matter of fact they meet both the nominal convergence and membership criteria. On the other hand, Mr Vasilescu explains that Romania has experienced some variations in sustain its economy in order to meet the EU criteria. He underlines that at the beginning of 2008, the country had a value of under 3% concerning the budget deficit (which is the maximum accepted), and at the end of the year, even though the economy had experienced growth, the budget deficit had fallen to a value of 5.4%. Now, we fulfill all the nominal criteria, meaning inflation, budget deficit, public debt, interest and foreign exchange rate, but we were still unable to meet the real convergence criteria. Still, Romania has made some steps in this direction also by accelerating the economic growth rhythm, but also there have been improvements in the ratio of the PIB/capita to the parity Purchasing Power standard. In this sector it seems that we experienced an increase from 32% to over 50%. However we still have to improve these values, as it seems that our position is still in the last 28 countries. But we still have chances that in the years to come to surpass some countries and to assure that the real convergence criteria to be meet also. These being said, when Romania will feel and will be ready, then that is the moment when the euro currency will come also in our country.
Total votes: 8
Peer vote

In my point of view Romania is not prepared to adopt the Euro currency. First of all we are talking about a psychological change in the mind of the consumer and if they are not ready for it, small businesses will be the most affected. Some may even end up bankrupt and it will affect the economy. It is well known that Romania has a duty regarding joining the Euro zone since 2007, but I strongly believe that we are not prepared yet. Besides the psychological change, we are talking here about our economical problems, corruption and the fact that we barely reached the maximum GDP allowed (3%). In this verry moment, we acomplish the nominal criterias like deficit, public debt, interest, foreign exchange rate and inflation. But for joining the Euro is not only about meeting the criterias one time, it is about maintaining a stable economy and we will know if this is possible for Romania in few years. Those being said, I believe that Romania will be ready to join Euro zone in few years, but for it to be a reality we have to make few steps towards teaching the citizens that it means to use the Euro currency and fight the corruption.
Total votes: 10
Peer vote

The year 2015 may be considered a very favourable one for the Romanian economy. According to the 2015 Spring European Commission’s forecast, the macroeconomic indicators should remain stable or improve (economic growth at 2.8 per cent, public deficit 1.25 per cent of GDP, public debt at around 40 per cent of GDP). Moreover, in April, the National Bank’s Governor Mugur Isărescu announced that Romania fulfilled all the Maastricht nominal convergence criteria and ten of eleven criteria of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, recalling the commitment made by the Romanian Government to join the euro area on January 1, 2019. However, in early October 2015, Governor Isărescu warned against the lack of realism concerning the January 1 2019 target and the risks of repeating some of the recent Greek experiences, which might be the arguments behind these concerns. Might January 1, 2019 still be considered a realistic target for euro adoption in Romania? First of all, the technical conditionalities imposed by the euro adoption process and the lack of a concrete action plan may help explain the Governor’s doubts. Technically speaking, the euro adoption starting from January 1 2019 would imply the compliance of all the nominal Maastricht criteria, including the participation in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) for a minimum of two years, starting from January 1, 2016. At this moment, because of the lack of timely and concrete measures, it is quite impossible for Romania to meet this condition. Secondly, although at this moment Romania fulfils all nominal convergence criteria (excluding the participation in ERM II), the situation may change in the following years. Some of the current economic policy measures initiated by the Romanian government may jeopardise the very fragile macroeconomic equilibrium, the public deficit level being forecast by the European Commission to reach 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2016, way above the EU requirements. Inevitably, fiscal relaxation promoted by the new Fiscal Code, as well as the already announced increase of public sector wages (without being complemented by a rise in the revenue collection and a better structure of budgetary spending), might only lead to further macroeconomic imbalances. Thirdly, on the grounds of the recent euro area crisis, it appears more than evident that strict and arithmetic fulfilment of nominal convergence criteria will no longer represent a sufficient guarantee for joining the euro area. The Greek crisis, in particular, has demonstrated that structural vulnerabilities of the less-prepared member states can strain the sustainability of the entire construction and expose the significance of structural problems in both euro zone countries and the EU as a whole. Taking into account that the most important lesson of the Greek crisis is that long-term sustainability of the euro zone will strongly depend not only on the respect of new fiscal rules or stronger coordination of economic policies, but also on EU’s capacity to reduce its internal economic divergences, the 2019 target date for Romania appears to be a moving one. Sources: http://emerging-europe.com/
Total votes: 6
Peer vote

Potrivit tratatului de la Maastricht, ţările care vor să adere la zona unică trebuie să îndeplinească cinci criterii de convergenţă. Din nefericire, România încă nu se încadrează cu brio in acestea, ba chiar este foarte deficitara la unele, precum criteriul de baza: o economie stabilă. Este totuși un subiect de maxima incitare pentru România, intrucat beneficiile integrarii in zona euro ar fi foarte avantajoase. Cel mai vehiculat beneficiu pentru aderarea la zona euro este eliminarea costurilor de tranzacţie atât pentru companii, cât şi pentru persoane fizice. Eliminarea acestor costuri ar trebui să contribuie la creşterea productivităţii totale a factorilor de producţie. Mai mult, calitatea de membru al Uniunii Monetare ar favoriza comerțul României cu statele partenere. Prin acestea, consider ca răspunsul negativ conform căruia țara noastră nu este pregătită sa adere la zona euro, nu ar trebui sa fie de durata, încurajarea spre acest pas ar trebui sa vina cât mai curând.
Total votes: 11
Peer vote

Romania nu este pregatita sa adere la moneda unica si nici nu ii sunt de ajuns 10 ca sa o faca, deoarece acest lucru din punct de vedere tehnic si matematic nu este posibil. Este necesar ca Romania sa treaca prin anticamera, sa fie evaluata si doar apoi sa intre cu adevarat in zona euro, iar acest fapt nu se va realiza in deplinatate in anul 2020. Romania nu este gata sa adere la moneda unica europeana, deoarece situatia se prezinta in felul urmator: de exemplu, daca de la inceputul anului unul dintre criteriile de aderare erau indeplinite corect, spre sfarsitul anului situatia este dezechilibrata si criteriul ramane neindeplinit (fac referire la deficitul bugetar). Problema este ca acum Romania indeplineste criteriile de convergenta nominala, dar nu si cele de convergenta reala.
Total votes: 7
Peer vote

Una din formele superioare de integrare europeană o constituie Uniunea Economica si Monetara (UEM), fiind la moment cel mai ambiţios şi totodată cel mai riscant proiect al construcţiei europene. Astfel că, fiecare stat care adera la Uniunea Europenă, işi propune ca mai devreme sau mai târziu să facă parte din acest proiect-UEM. Acelaşi obiectiv si l-au propus si ultimii doi membri ai Uniunii Europene care au aderat la Uniunea Europeana, la 1 ianuarie 2007 – Romania şi Bulgaria. Însă România nu a putut şi nici nu poate să intre în zona euro. Acest lucru se datorează faptului că statul Român nu se încadrează în toate cele cinci criterii stipulate în tratatul de la Maastricht.
Total votes: 13
Peer vote

Opinia mea este ca România inca nu este pregătită pentru zona euro, deoarece acţiunile pregătitoare participării la zona euro constau în îndeplinirea criteriilor de convergenţă nominală (criteriile de la Maastricht): inflaţie şi dobânzi apropiate de cele ale ţărilor din zona euro, stabilitate a cursului de schimb, deficit şi datorie publică scăzute. În plus, determinarea gradului de sustenabilitate a procesului de convergenţă este posibilă prin analiza unor indicatori de aliniere structurală (convergenţă reală), precum nivelul PIB pe locuitor, gradul de deschidere a economiei, structura economiei, finanţarea deficitului de cont curent, costul forţei de muncă, gradul de intermediere financiară etc. O altă cerinţă este continuarea procesului de preluare şi transpunere în legislaţia naţională a reglementărilor comunitare (convergenţa juridică). Dar totusi România nu este total indiferenta, astfel până în prezent, în cadrul Comitetului de pregătire a trecerii la euro au fost analizate o serie de documente referitoare la: (i) experienţa altor ţări în pregătirea trecerii la euro; (ii) stadiul pregătirii României pentru adoptarea euro (studii privind cursul de schimb de echilibru, indicatori de aliniere structurală a României la zona euro); (iii) mecanisme şi concepte noi dezvoltate la nivelul Uniunii Europene după criza financiară (note privind Semestrul European, demararea funcţionării Comitetului European pentru Risc Sistemic, Pactul Euro Plus); (iv) contribuţii ale BNR la documentele programatice ale guvernului român (Programul de Convergenţă, Programul Naţional de Reformă).
Total votes: 8
Peer vote